Аналитик Осадчий: «Основное влияние на рост цен оказывает потребление бедных, а не богатых» Поделиться
В России у 40% граждан старше 16 лет есть кредиты. Об этом сообщил ЦБ РФ в обнародованном обзоре тенденций розничного кредитования по итогам 2023 года. Финансовые обязательства перед банками и МФО имеют 50 млн россиян. Очевидно, что соотечественников не пугают высокие ставки по кредитам. Почему двузначная ключевая ставка регулятора не помогает затормозить инфляцию и чем опасно такое положение дел, «МК» рассказал начальник аналитического управления банка БКФ Максим Осадчий.
— Годовой рост цен к 1 апреля составил 7,62%, а неделей ранее был на уровне 7,61%, следует из обзора Минэкономразвития «О текущей ценовой ситуации». Инфляция медленно, но уверенно продолжает ползти вверх, несмотря на высокую ключевую ставку, превышающую инфляцию более чем в два раза. Почему так происходит?
— Чтобы разобраться в этом вопросе, вспомним широко распространенное объяснение того, почему повышение ключевой ставки должно подавлять рост цен. Население реагирует на повышение ставок ростом спроса на депозиты, увеличивается приток средств населения в банки. Соответственно, у людей остается меньше денег на покупки. Однако население неоднородно, есть богатые и бедные, и они неодинаково реагируют на рост ставок. При этом основное влияние на изменение цен оказывает потребление бедных — по той простой причине, что их гораздо больше. Поэтому влиянием богатых на изменение спроса из-за роста ставок можно пренебречь. Возможно, один богатый и ест за десятерых бедных, но бедных в сотни раз больше. К тому же фуа-гра, трюфели и устрицы в расчет инфляции не входят.
— Да и финансовое поведение богатых и бедных отличается, не так ли?
— Действительно, богатые преимущественно сберегают, формируя основную массу депозитов, тогда как бедные, по большей части, живут в кредит. Казалось бы, рост ставок должен в идеале снижать спрос бедных на кредиты и снижать их потребление. Но ничего подобного мы не наблюдаем, и розничные кредиты, и спрос населения на товары продолжают расти.
— Так в чем причина такого парадоксального явления?
— А ларчик открывается просто. Спрос населения в значительной степени финансируется за счет розничного кредита. По оценке Frank RG, выдачи кредитов наличными в феврале увеличились на 28% к январю, автокредитов — на 29%, ипотеки — на 17%, причем объем предоставленных населению ссуд превысил 1 трлн рублей. Как видим, в этом сегменте кредитного рынка продолжается активный рост, подстегиваемый госсубсидиями процентных ставок по ипотеке и автокредиту. Напрямую цена жилья не входит в потребительскую корзину, используемую для расчета инфляции. Но денежные потоки, генерируемые продажей жилья, уходят через карманы строителей на рынок. Аналогично и с автокредитом.
— В прошлом году ЦБ и Минфин активизировали борьбу за охлаждение рынка ипотеки. Был повышен первоначальный взнос по льготному жилищному кредитованию, ставка выросла и одновременно ужесточены требования к заемщикам. Меры не сработали?
— Почему же, эти меры дали эффект. Рынок ипотеки охлаждается. Однако спрос населения на кредиты переметнулся с рынка ипотеки на рынок автокредита. Госпрограмму льготного автокредита продлили на 2024-2026 годы и выделили на 15 млрд рублей больше, чем планировалось. А рынок необеспеченного потребительского кредита растет в значительной степени из-за перекредитования. Кроме того, многие заемщики используют необеспеченный потребительский кредит для оплаты первоначального взноса по ипотеке.
— Как вы объясняете такое поведение потребителей? Высокие ставки людей не пугают?
— Так в том-то и дело, что преимущественно спрос населения на кредит растет за счет госпрограмм льготного кредитования со ставками значительно ниже рыночных. Убери эти льготы, и кредитный «пузырь» тут же лопнет.
— Учитывая тот факт, что кредиты берут небогатые люди, как вы заметили ранее, выходит, что они сами ухудшают свое материальное положение?
— Именно так. Есть показатель долговой нагрузки (ПДН), который демонстрирует, какую долю своего дохода заемщик тратит на обсуживание кредита. И этот показатель не радует: по данным ЦБ, в третьем квартале 2023 года 34% выдач ипотечных жилищных кредитов по ДДУ (договорам долевого участия) приходилась на заемщиков с показателем долговой нагрузки выше 100%.
— Можно ли говорить о формировании «пузыря» на рынке ипотеки?
— Вполне, хотя регулятор и предпочитает использовать термин «перегрев рынка».
— И что же делать?
— Негативный эффект от роста ключевой ставки (замедление роста экономики) оказывается сильнее ее позитивного эффекта (торможения роста цен). Для того, чтобы исправить положение, необходимо сворачивать госпрограммы льготного кредитования, деформируюрующие экономику. Но делать это нужно осторожно, чтобы избежать экономического кризиса.
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As a result, 33% of the themes could be classified as hypertensive using
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