100 процентов устрашения: Трамп пригрозил России и её торговым партнерам громадными пошлинами

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Эксперты рассказали, как на отечественной экономике отразится угрозы американского лидера Поделиться

Президент США Дональд Трамп пообещал ввести пошлины в размере 100% в отношении России и её торговых партнеров, если в ближайшие 50 дней не будет урегулирован конфликт на Украине. Таким образом Вашингтон надеется повлиять на действия Москвы и добиться политических уступок. Как следует относиться к угрозам американского лидера и насколько серьезный ущерб они могут причинить России, «МК» выяснил у экспертов.

100 процентов устрашения: Трамп пригрозил России и её торговым партнерам громадными пошлинами

Фото: Yuri Gripas — Pool via CNP/Keystone Press Agency/Global Look Press

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«Я очень недоволен действиями России, — заявил американский президент. — Мы введем вторичные санкции, если не будет достигнуто соглашение (по Украине. — «МК») в течение 50 дней… И это будут тарифы как минимум в 100%». Причем речь идет не только об ограничении на торговлю с Россией. Пошлины в 100% будут введены и на все товары, поступающие в США из стран-торговых партнеров нашего государства, в первую очередь Индии и Китая. Они также являются наиболее крупными покупателями российской нефти. По мнению главы Белого дома, такие действия должны склонить Москву к уступкам в конфликте с Киевом.

По словам действительного госсоветника РФ, доцента кафедры политического анализа и социально-психологических процессов РЭУ им. Плеханова Павла Севостьянова, заявление Трампа — это скорее элемент дипломатической риторики и политического давления, чем готовый к немедленной реализации механизм. С юридической и институциональной точки зрения подобные меры потребуют серьезной проработки и поддержки Конгресса. Потенциальный ущерб для российской экономики ограничен: основные экспортные потоки уже диверсифицированы, а страны, активно взаимодействующие с Россией, — Китай, Индия, государства ЕАЭС и Ближнего Востока, — демонстрируют высокую степень устойчивости к внешнему давлению. Для партнеров России подобные угрозы скорее создают фон неопределенности, чем реальную мотивацию к изменению курса. Они вряд ли пойдут на шаги, наносящие ущерб их экономическим интересам, уверен эксперт.

Как напомнила ведущий аналитик Freedom Finance Global Наталья Мильчакова, Трамп с момента инаугурации уже много чего наобещал и много кому угрожал, только похоже, что мало кто на планете его боится. Так, несмотря на то, что хозяин Белого дома уже несколько раз переносил сроки заключения с ним торговых сделок стран-импортеров продукции в США (последний раз дедлайн перенес на 1 августа), в итоге сделки с Вашингтоном заключили только две страны — Великобритания и Вьетнам. А с Китаем, несмотря уже на взаимные угрозы, достигли довольно условного рамочного соглашения. Наверняка с угрозами в адрес России будет так же — этот дедлайн Трамп, чтобы не потерять лицо, будет продлевать, и, возможно, даже не один раз. Кроме того, пошлины на российский импорт в США не имеют смысла, о чем Трамп даже сам говорил в начале года: Россия почти не экспортирует в Америку, поэтому не подпадает под пошлины, объявленные им изначально для всего мира. В 2024 году товарооборот России и США упал до минимума с 1992 года в $3,5 млрд, причем основная доля товарооборота пришлась на импорт Россией товаров из США, а доля экспорта российских товаров в США была незначительной. В основном это были уран, металлы платиновой группы, двигатели для космических кораблей, минеральные удобрения и некоторые виды химической продукции. Российской экономике пошлины на эти товары не принесут никакого вреда, просто экспортеры будут поставлять продукцию на другие рынки, где российским товарам рады.

ЧИТАТЬ ТАКЖЕ:  Миллер сделал грозное предупреждение Европе, сославшись на спекулянтов

«Партнеры России пошлин тоже не испугаются, да и вообще нежелание третьих стран заключать сделки с Трампом говорит о том, что его почти никто не боится», — утверждает Мильчакова. На жизни простых граждан эти угрозы никак не отразятся: и так уже Россия третий год живет в условиях почти 18 тысяч санкций, а 2023-2024 годы для нашей экономики оказались самыми успешными за последние 15 лет, напомнила аналитик.

«В политическом плане угрозы Трампа бесперспективны, в экономическом — способствуют дальнейшему нарастанию неопределенности и хаоса в мировой экономике, — считает замдиректора Института мировой экономики и международных отношений (ИМЭМО) РАН Сергей Афонцев. — Очевидно, что Россия не изменит своей политики даже в том случае, если пошлины реально будут введены». Для начала нужно дождаться, во что реально будут воплощены угрозы Трампа. Как показывают первые полгода его второго президентского срока, между его заявлениями и реальными решениями могут лежать и горы, и пропасти, подчеркнул ученый.

Ведущий эксперт Центра политических технологий Никита Масленников обратил внимание на то, что 50-дневный срок дает возможность и России, и ее торговым партнерам оценить и приспособиться к новым ограничениям. «Ситуация сложная, но пока еще не кризисная. И чтобы она такой не стала, наша страна должна двигаться дальше по тем трекам, которые наметила для себя раньше, главный из которых – это развитие и поддержка проектов технологического суверенитета», – считает экономист.

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