Центробанк обозначил сроки нового финансового кризиса

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Что регулятор увидел в 2023 году

Центробанк не исключил наступления в 2023 году глобального финансового кризиса, который приведет к спаду российской экономики. Среди нескольких сценариев ее развития, представленных регулятором, этот — самый мрачный и одновременно абсолютно реальный. По прогнозу, кризис, сопоставимый по масштабам с событиями 2008–2009 годов, обрушит цену нефти почти вдвое, а экономику нашей страны ввергнет в ступор, откуда она будет долго выбираться. Реальность может оказаться хуже, считают опрошенные «МК» эксперты.

Центробанк обозначил сроки нового финансового кризиса

Опубликованный Банком России проект основных направлений денежно-кредитной политики (ДКП) содержит несколько сценариев развития отечественной экономики: базовый и три альтернативных — с глобальной инфляцией, усилением пандемии и финансовым кризисом. Согласно основному прогнозу ЦБ, темпы прироста ВВП стабилизируются в пределах 2–3%, а инфляция вернется к таргету в 4%. В случае с глобальной инфляцией экономика «продолжит расти ускоренными темпами» — на 2,4–3,4%. «Ковидный» вариант предполагает околонулевую динамику, а затем ускорение до 3,5–4,5%.

Наконец, в случае мирового финансового кризиса экономика России потеряет 1,4–2,4%, ее «восстановление будет затяжным и затянется на несколько кварталов». При этом у ЦБ не будет пространства для денежно-кредитного стимулирования — ему придется поднять ключевую ставку до 8,3–9,3% (в среднем за 2023 год), чтобы притушить эффекты усиленной инфляции и ослабления рубля. А правительство, как и в прошлом году, будет вынуждено отступить от бюджетного правила, чтобы поддержать экономику и внутренний спрос.

Вероятный кризис 2023 года Центробанк связывает со значительным увеличением долговой нагрузки в мировой экономике вследствие пандемии, с заметным ростом «спекулятивного» сегмента корпоративного долга. Рецессия обернется падением спроса и снижением цены на нефть почти вдвое, с $75 в 2022 году до $40 за баррель в 2023-м.

«Прогноз ЦБ опирается на два ключевых фактора: во-первых, на тенденции последних месяцев в глобальной экономике, во-вторых, на непредсказуемое развитие пандемии с ее бесконечными новыми волнами и штаммами, — говорит главный аналитик TeleTrade Марк Гойхман. — Причем регулятор рассматривает вариант «финансовый кризис» чуть не наравне с базовым. В этой связи вспоминаются слова поэта Роберта Рождественского: «Мы пишем на злобу дня и на его добро. Но больше, правда, — на злобу, на злобу, на злобу!»

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Примечательно, отмечает собеседник «МК», что вариант с кризисом рассматривается не в случае ухудшения эпидемиологической обстановки, а наоборот, при ее улучшении. И это, как ни парадоксально, делает такой исход более реальным. Если пандемия начнет сходить на нет, мировые центробанки прекратят накачивать рынки дешевыми деньгами по низким процентным ставкам. Кредиты подорожают, а курс доллара (основной валюты заимствования) повысится. Возвращать долги станет гораздо сложнее, как и инвестировать в производство. Это, в свою очередь, приведет к резкому сокращению спроса на сырье и рисковые активы, то есть больно ударит по развивающимся рынкам, включая Россию. Ее экономика упадет, инфляция рванет вверх, рубль ослабнет. Такой расклад получил название «стагфляция» — сочетание стагнации и инфляции.

«Общий фон крайне неблагоприятный, и реализоваться может любой из озвученных Центробанком сценариев, на мой взгляд, с 40-процентной вероятностью, — говорит ведущий эксперт Центра политических технологий Никита Масленников. — Главное, что их объединяет, — это темпы затухания (или, наоборот, дальнейшего возгорания) пандемии, не поддающиеся никаким расчетам. Пока мы видим, что ковид подбрасывает человечеству все новые штаммы и отодвигает восстановительный рост глобального ВВП. В Соединенных Штатах, в Еврозоне, в Китае — везде экономика тормозит. Но особенно плохи дела в развивающихся странах. Кроме того, рынки наводнены «мусорными» облигациями — это прямое следствие беспрецедентной их накачки валютной ликвидностью, всевозможных программ количественного смягчения».

Что касается России, то нельзя исключать риск повторения сценария 2008–2009 годов. Когда кризис начинался, звучали бодрые предположения, что экономика упадет не более чем на 1,5%. А она рухнула на 7,5%, резюмирует Масленников.

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    References:

    Elton

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