Аналитик Разуваев: «На рынке формируется дефицит валюты» Поделиться
На валютном рынке пока без потрясений: волатильность рубля снизилась, нет ни рекордов, ни антирекордов, на динамике никак не отразился даже теракт в «Крокусе». В целом в марте, да и в предыдущие несколько месяцев, курс торговался в диапазоне 90-93 рубля за доллар. Но что будет в апреле, когда властям придется решать вопрос о продлении или непродлении срока действия президентского указа об обязательной продаже экспортерами валютной выручки?

Во всяком случае, ждать укрепления российской валюты не стоит точно. Геополитические и санкционные риски остаются в силе, отток капитала продолжается, импорт растет, а экспорт – напротив, сокращается. Плюс, по-прежнему высок спрос на валюту для выкупа доли российских компаний у иностранных собственников.
Что касается обязательной продажи валютной выручки, пока нет никаких подтверждений, что мера, действующая до 30 апреля 2024-го, будет продлена. В январе первый вице-премьер Андрей Белоусов заявил, что правительство выступает за пролонгацию до конца года, учитывая эффективность механизма. В свою очередь, Банк России не видит веских оснований для этого, о чем неоднократно заявляла Эльвира Набиуллина. Если указ не продлят, объемы продажи валюты на внутреннем рынке сократятся, соответственно, рубль с высокой долей вероятности вступит в новую фазу ослабления.
— Очень многое зависит от этого решения, — говорит член наблюдательного совета Гильдии финансовых аналитиков и риск-менеджеров Александр Разуваев. — ЦБ однозначно против, Минфин – однозначно за. Поживем-увидим чьи доводы сильнее. Раз регулятор не стал менять ключевую ставку, оставив на уровне 16% годовых, значит, он уверен в своем выборе. Не думаю, что в апреле курс кардинально изменится, однако очевидно, что на валютном рынке формируется дефицит валюты. На ситуацию серьезно влияет состояние торгово-платежного баланса, которое далеко от идеального: экономика по-прежнему находится в сильной зависимости от цены на нефть. Вообще, хорошего сейчас мало: импорт растет, а нефтяной потолок в $60 за баррель урезает наши экспортные доходы.
— А дефицит бюджета, какова его роль сейчас?
— Ну, он не такой уж страшный, и его влияние на курс невелико. Плюс, Минфин планирует провести масштабную приватизацию, чтобы увеличить поступления от продажи госимущества почти в сто раз — с 1 млрд до 100 млрд рублей. На доходах казны это должно сказаться положительно.

















































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