Ведущий «Сельского часа» Абакумов порассуждал о возможности голода в России

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«Может быть лишь искусственно созданным» Поделиться

Разговоры о глобальном продовольственном кризисе идут уже давно. Но, по большому счету, до политической дестабилизации, волнений, неконтролируемой миграции и прочих напастей, что нам предрекали еще год назад, дело не доходит. Однако ООН так просто стращать человечество надвигающейся продовольственной катастрофой не станет. Грозят ли России подобная опасность и при каких условиях?

Ведущий  «Сельского часа» Абакумов порассуждал о возможности голода в России

Зловещие прогнозы уже переносятся на наступивший 2023 год. С тем только отличием, что в 2023-м нам всем грозит не просто кризис, а глобальная продовольственная катастрофа. 

Да, по данным ООН на планете постоянно недоедают больше 800 миллионов человек, проблемы с продовольствием в разной степени испытывают 345 миллионов в 45 странах мира.

Кстати, Россия, как может, своими сельхозизлишками поддерживает голодающие страны. Уже сегодня очевидно, что мы сумеем экспортировать на африканский континент и в некоторые бедные страны Юго-Восточной Азии  рекордные 50 миллионов тонн хлеба, собранные в нынешнем году.

Да и в целом, ни в 2022-м, ни в предыдущие годы в России никто не голодал.

Но может ли все резко измениться?

Этот вопрос мы задали Игорю Абакумову – кандидату экономических наук, ведущему программы «Сельский час».

— В России продовольственный кризис может быть только рукотворным, искусственно организованным, — считает он. – Естественным порядком он не случится ни при каких обстоятельствах.

— Откуда такая уверенность? Ударят засуха или дожди – вот уже большая продовольственная проблема…

— Наша страна имеет много разных климатических зон со своими  особенностями. Добавим сюда огромные посевные площади и  многочисленных мелких и крупных сельхозпроизводителей. Они в любой ситуации создадут необходимый продовольственный баланс. 

Нужно добавить: если, конечно, сельским хозяйством не командовать административным образом и не заставлять крестьян большую часть времени работать не в поле, а составлять отчеты «наверх» или писать объяснительные в контролирующие организации. Такое бывает.

ЧИТАТЬ ТАКЖЕ:  У приватизации в России может быть печальное продолжение

Если всего этого не будет, мы никогда не узнаем про какой-то там продовольственный дефицит. Где угодно, но не в России.

— Тем не менее, в горбачевские времена магазины были пустыми, хотя страна имела разные климатические пояса…

— Тот период не показателен. Горбачев правил страной шесть лет и пытался одновременно проводить все экономические и политические реформы.

— Но кто способен искусственным путем вызвать нехватку продовольствия?

— Так называемые эффективные менеджеры и бюрократия. Они могут все так зарегулировать, что пахать и сеять станет просто невозможно.

— Примеры есть?

— Сколько угодно. Сейчас в крестьянских хозяйствах идет массовое изъятие грантов, которые они получили на развитие производства.

— Что это такое?

— Фермер подает бизнес-план, в котором по каждому пункту экономически обосновывает, что за определенный период времени он увеличит, допустим, поголовье коров или посевные площади. Но ему нужны государственныt субсидии.

Специальные комиссии долго изучают бизнес-план, очень долго. За это время цены на стройматериалы вырастают в 1,5-2 раза или появляются новые санкции и вместо одного оборудования, приходится закупать другое.

Но после того, как фермер получит грант – от 2 до 20 миллионов рублей – ему придется точно в срок ввести объект в эксплуатацию и в соответствии с ранее утвержденной сметой. Хотя обстоятельства сильно изменились. Любое отклонение от проекта считается мошенничеством, нецелевым расходованием средств. Хотя ферма построена, пускай и с опозданием, и коровы давно дают молоко.

Сразу идут суды и банкротство – если фермеры не в состоянии вернуть 20 миллионов рублей за уже построенный объект.

Таких примеров сколько угодно. Отчасти по этой причине за последние 5 лет количество фермерских хозяйств в стране снизилось на 30%.

Вот, если такая ситуация будет продолжаться, то мы можем остаться у разбитого корыта. Но будем надеяться, что этого не произойдет.

4 КОММЕНТАРИИ

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