Аналитик Антонов рассказал о «точке боли» по валютному курсу для ЦБ и Минфина Поделиться
В последние дни наделал шуму прогноз Минэкономразвития по рублю, согласно которому тот будет укрепляться до 94 за доллар к концу этого года. 90-92 — к середине следующего, а на пике укрепления в июле 2024-го и вовсе достигнет 87,5 рублей. Однако сентябрь рубль закончил на бирже не укреплением, а очередным ослаблением – почти до 98 за доллар. Что же будет происходить с курсом нашей национальной валюты дальше – в октябре? Об этом «МК» поговорил со специалистами — финансовым аналитиком BitRiver Владиславом Антоновым и ведущим аналитиком Freedom Finance Global Натальей Мильчаковой.

Фото: freepik
— Чем руководствовался Минэк, давая столшь оптимистичный прогноз на укрепления курса рубля? Для этого действительно есть основания?
Антонов: При составлении прогноза Минэкономразвития опирается на свои макроданные и математические модели. Существует много разных моделей, результаты у всех получаются разными, поскольку отличаются входные параметры. В текущих условиях с высокими геополитическими рисками и полной неопределенностью из-за санкций, бессмысленно делать среднесрочные прогнозы. Ежедневно происходит много событий, которые оказывают влияние на биржи. На динамику рубля могут оказывать влияние: ЦБ России, Минфин РФ, цены на нефть, решения альянса ОПЕК+, динамика доллара на глобальном рынке, вербальные интервенции представителей власти, налоговый период, спрос на импорт, а также данные по инфляции и санкции.
— Увидим ли мы в наступающем октябре передом тренда — начнет ли рубль укрепляться и если да, то под воздействием каких факторов?
Антонов: Снижение курса до 94 рублей за доллар вполне вероятно. Это не такое уж и большое движение. Колебания по 1-2 рубля рынок может показывать в течение одного дня. Чем дальше значение от нуля, тем выше волатильность.
Но я не вижу пока условий для перелома тренда. Доля сделок в нацвалютах увеличивается, значит предложение долларов и евро на рынке снижается. Тогда как спрос на валюту от импортеров сохраняется.
Мильчакова: На наш взгляд, для рубля, в первую очередь, имеют значение динамика цен на нефть и макроэкономические показатели России, в том числе – динамика торгового баланса и бюджетных доходов. Так как эти показатели улучшаются, и, возможно, в сентябре госбюджет РФ будет также сведён с профицитом, как и в августе, значит, есть вероятность, что рубль будет укрепляться.
Кроме того, доллар выше 90 руб. и евро выше 100 руб. выглядят сильно перекупленными. В конце октября совет директоров Банка России обнародует очередное решение по ключевой ставке. Если доллар снова вырастет примерно до 100 руб., то ключевая ставка может быть опять повышена, скорее всего, с 13% до 14%, что в краткосрочном периоде может повлиять на укрепление рубля. Да и налоговый период в конце месяца никто не отменял. Так что факторы для возможного укрепления рубля имеются.
— А какова вероятность того, что рубль «не послушается» правительство и будет ослабляться в октябре и далее?
Антонов: Мы не знаем, на каком уровне по доллару и евро находится «точка боли» для ЦБ и Минфина. На самом деле, Минфину слабый рубль и высокие цены на нефть только на руку, поскольку не дают разрастаться дефициту бюджета при больших расходах. Центральный банк контролирует инфляцию и не занимается курсообразованием валют на рынке. Его заботит только инфляция и борется он с ней через повышение ставок.
ЦБ выступает за рыночные механизмы курсообразования и не хочет вводить комиссии за покупку валюты и ограничивать вывод капитала.
Мильчакова: Несмотря на то, что показатели бюджетных доходов будут работать в пользу укрепления рубля, некоторые другие показатели, например, уровень инфляции, может, наоборот, стать фактором его ослабления. Данные об ускорении роста инфляции в сентябре (они выйдут только в первой декаде октября) могут ослабить рубль в краткосрочном периоде. Кроме того, рубль в сентябре слабел чаще всего в связи с ростом объёмов покупок валюты в Фонд национального благосостояния (ФНБ), а укреплялся – в период покупок валюты со стороны ЦБ РФ. Такая тенденция, если будет продолжаться ещё и в октябре, может не укрепить, а наоборот, ослабить рубль. Выход зарубежных инвесторов из российских активов тоже генерирует спрос на валюту. Наконец, геополитическая обстановка пока тоже остаётся сложной. Все это факторы, работающие против рубля.
— Ваш прогноз: каким будет курс к концу октября, к концу текущего года и к середине 2024-го?
Антонов: Я не вижу предпосылок к тому, чтобы рубль укрепился за 9 месяцев на 9-10 рублей, как это значится в прогнозе Минэка. Склоняюсь к тому, что в этот период мы будем наблюдать колебания доллара в диапазоне 92,5 – 101 руб.
Мильчакова: Исходя из перечисленных выше факторов – как позитивных, так и негативных, мы считаем, что к концу октября доллар будет колебаться в рамках 94-98 руб., евро – в коридоре 102-106 рублей. К концу 2023 года ожидаем доллар на уровне 93-97 руб., евро – в диапазоне 101-105 рублей.

















































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