Проблема с транзитом грузов через Красное море угрожает интересам России

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Логистика будет дорожать и отразится на ценах Поделиться

Участившиеся атаки хуситов на суда в Красном море пока никак не сказались на планах российских нефтяников, которые продолжают активно транспортировать сырье по этому небезопасному маршруту. Однако для глобального рынка грузоперевозок ситуация складывается настолько опасная и непредсказуемая, что в стороне не останется никто. Интересы российского бизнеса будут неизбежно затронуты. Вопрос – в какой степени?

Проблема с транзитом грузов через Красное море угрожает интересам России

Сегодня около 12% международных контейнерных перевозок и 10% поставок нефти осуществляются именно этим водным путем, который соединяется со Средиземным морем через Суэцкий канал. По оценкам старшего аналитика Виктора Катоны из компании Kpler, для России этот маршрут имеет стратегическое значение: через него идет более половины морского экспорта российской нефти, или около 2 млн баррелей в сутки (б/с), включая Urals и арктические сорта.

Между тем, транзит грузов через Суэцкий канал из соображений безопасности приостановили по меньшей мере 12 судоходных компаний. В их числе: итало-швейцарская Mediterranean Shipping Company, французская CMA CGM и датская AP Moller-Maersk. На днях их примеру последовал британский нефтяной гигант BP. И теперь перевозчикам приходится использовать намного более длинный маршрут – через мыс Доброй Надежды на южной оконечности Капского полуострова в ЮАР. Это ведет к удорожанию логистики и увеличению сроков доставки грузов на несколько недель.

Первое нападение на коммерческое судно произошло 19 ноября. Йеменская группировка сообщила о захвате принадлежащего израильскому бизнесмену сухогруза Galaxy Leader, шедшего под флагом Багамских островов, вместе с экипажем из 25 человек. Хуситы заявили, что не освободят людей до тех пор, пока Израиль не прекратит боевые действия в секторе Газа. С того момента в районе Красного моря было зафиксировано 17 случаев нападений на гражданские суда с применением беспилотников и противокорабельных ракет. Последний по счету инцидент произошел 18 декабря: танкер Swan Atlantic, шедший под флагом Каймановых Островов, подвергся ракетному обстрелу у берегов Йемена. Фактически, таким образом хуситы стали оказывать давление уже не столько на Еврейское государство, сколько на международный бизнес. В итоге объем перевозок через Красное море упал на 35%.

«Конечно, логистика будет дорожать для всех, включая Россию, — говорит эксперт Финансового университета при правительстве РФ Игорь Юшков. – До введения санкций логистические маршруты были выстроены для нашей страны самым оптимальным образом: нефть поставлялась из портов Ленинградской области в Роттердам, а из портов Новороссийска – в Южную Европу. То есть, кратчайшим путем: отгрузил в Роттердаме и быстро вернулся за новой партией. Соответственно, не возникало нужды в большом количестве танкеров. Ситуация резко изменилась после вынужденного ухода России на азиатские рынки. В Индию мы отгружаем нефть даже из балтийских портов, используя гораздо больше судов, поскольку логистическое плечо заметно удлинилось. Примерно та же история с Ираком, Саудовской Аравией, ОАЭ и другими странами, которые прежде были основными поставщиками сырья в Азию, а в 2022-м переключились на Европу».

ЧИТАТЬ ТАКЖЕ:  Разводка к празднику: мошенники обещают «выплаты» гражданам в честь Дня России

А сегодня к этому добавилась проблема с транзитом через Красное море. И так танкеров не хватает, и так фрахт дорогой, а теперь еще и возникла необходимость доставлять грузы далеким окружным путем – через мыс Доброй Надежды. Пока она коснулась лишь западных перевозчиков: суда российских, иракских, ливийских, китайских сырьевых компаний продолжают пользоваться Суэцким каналом и Баб-эль-Мандебским проливом. Но кто знает, какой оборот примут события в дальнейшем? В любом случае, возрастающая стоимость логистики отразится на нефтяных котировках, затронув и поставщиков, и конечных потребителей.

«Впрочем, — рассуждает Юшков, — сверхвысоких цен ждать не стоит, поскольку объемы поставок останутся прежними. Вот если бы, к примеру, перекрыли Ормузский пролив (стратегически важный пролив, соединяющий Персидский залив на юго-западе с Оманским заливом на юго-востоке и далее с открытым океаном. – «МК»), тогда бы часть глобальных экспортных объемов нефти вообще не смогла бы дойти от производителя к потребителю. На мировым рынке возник бы дефицит, а цена барреля точно превысила бы $100. Сейчас же речь идет максимум о нескольких дополнительных долларах к стоимости каждого барреля».

Вероятно, нынешняя ситуация в Красном море не продлится долго, но при всей своей потенциальной краткосрочности может оказать значительное влияние на рынок нефти, динамику котировок и логистические маршруты. Обычно такого рода форс-мажорные факторы приводят к колебаниям цен в размере 2-3% буквально за один день (фьючерс на Brent уже превысил $80), отмечает руководитель департамента продаж и клиентской поддержки «Альфа-Форекс» Александр Шнейдерман.

ЭТО МОЖЕТ БЫТЬ ИНТЕРЕСНОЕЩЕ ОТ АВТОРА

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  25. Mantoux Test

    The Mantoux test is a skin test used to determine if a person has been exposed
    to tuberculosis (TB) bacteria. It is also known as the **tuberculin test** or
    **PPD test** (Purified Protein Derivative).

    The Mantoux test involves injecting a small amount of purified protein derivative (PPD) into the skin of the
    forearm. This substance is derived from the bacteria that cause TB.

    History

    The Mantoux test was developed in 1905 by French
    physician Charles Mantoux. It became a standard diagnostic tool for tuberculosis in many countries until the advent of more accurate and
    reliable tests, such as the interferon-gamma release assay (IGRA) and nucleic acid amplification tests.

    Procedure

    The test is typically administered on the inner forearm.
    The healthcare provider uses a needle to inject 2 tuberculin units
    (TT) of PPD into the superficial fascia. A positive reaction usually
    appears within 2–4 days as a small, firm, and red bump that may
    be accompanied by surrounding erythema.

    Interpretation

    A positive Mantoux test indicates exposure to TB bacteria.
    The size and quality of the skin reaction help determine the
    likelihood of active or latent TB infection. A negative result suggests no
    exposure, but false negatives can occur in some cases.

    Applications

    The Mantoux test is primarily used for screening individuals who
    are at high risk of TB infection, such as those with a history of close contact with an infected person or immigration from a region with high TB prevalence.

    Limitations

    While the Mantoux test is useful, it has several limitations.
    It can produce false positives (inflammation caused by non-TB pathogens)
    and false negatives (failure to detect true-positive results).
    Additionally, the test requires careful interpretation by trained personnel.

    Conclusion

    The Mantoux test is a foundational diagnostic tool in tuberculosis control, despite being largely
    surpassed by more modern testing methods. It remains important for disease surveillance and elimination efforts worldwide.

    Contents

    1. **Mantoux Test**
    2. **History**
    3. **Procedure**
    4. **Classification of Tuberculin Reaction**
    5. **False Positive Result**
    6. **False Negative Result**
    7. **BCG Vaccine and the Mantoux Test**
    8. **Anergy Testing**
    9. **Two-Step Testing**
    10. **The Latest Interpretation for Mantoux Test Results**
    11. **Recent Developments**
    12. **Heaf Test**
    13. **See Also**
    14. **References**

    Mantoux Test

    The Mantoux test is a diagnostic tool used to determine if
    an individual has been exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis, the bacterium
    that causes tuberculosis (TB). It involves injecting a small amount of tuberculin solution into the skin and then observing the resulting reaction. This test is a
    cornerstone in TB diagnosis, providing valuable information for early detection and management of the disease.

    History

    The Mantoux test was developed by French physician Pierre-Marie Gilbert Charpy in 1905.
    Initially called the «Newark test,» it was later renamed after
    Charles Mantoux, a colleague who improved its methodology.
    Over time, the test has undergone modifications
    and is now a standard diagnostic tool used worldwide, particularly in areas where TB is prevalent.

    Procedure

    The Mantoux test is performed by injecting 0.1 mL
    of purified protein derivative (PPD) into the derma of the
    inner forearm. The site of injection is then read after 48-72 hours.
    A positive reaction is indicated by a firm, raised rash that
    may become erythematous or necrotic at the edges within 24-72 hours.

    Classification of Tuberculin Reaction

    The Mantoux test response can be categorized into several types:
    — **Positive**: A clear, raised, and often erythematous rash that develops within a
    few days after injection.
    — **Negative**: No visible reaction at the injection site or a minimal,
    non-inflammatory response.
    — **Boomerang Reaction**: A delayed response where the rash appears
    after 72 hours but resolves quickly, mimicking a negative result.

    The size and duration of the rash are important in interpreting the results.

    False Positive Result

    A false positive Mantoux test occurs when the skin reacts positively even though the individual has not been exposed to TB bacteria.
    This can happen due to:
    — Cross-reactivity with other mycobacterial infections, such as Bovine tuberculosis or Leprae.

    — Use of certain medications (e.g., interferons) that mimic aTB reaction.
    — Rarely, skin inflammation from conditions like eczema or
    contact dermatitis may cause a false positive.

    False Negative Result

    A false negative result occurs when an individual has
    been exposed to TB but the Mantoux test does not show a positive response.
    This can happen due to:
    — Early infection (before the immune system reacts).
    — Poor technique in administering the test.
    — Pre-existing immune suppression or malnutrition, which weakens the
    body’s response.

    BCG Vaccine and the Mantoux Test

    The BCG (Bacillus Calmette-Guérin) vaccine is widely
    used to prevent TB, especially in children. However, it can cause a false positive Mantoux reaction because the vaccine contains antigens
    similar to those in TB bacteria. This means that individuals who have received the BCG vaccine may show a positive
    Mantoux reaction even if they have not been exposed to TB.
    It’s important to interpret such results with caution, as
    a positive Mantoux test after BCG vaccination does not
    necessarily indicate active disease.

    Anergy Testing

    Anergy testing is a related procedure used to assess the immune response in individuals with conditions like
    Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) or cancer. It involves injecting a
    small amount of mumps, yeast, or another antigen and observing the lack of reaction (anergy) in individuals with impaired
    immune systems.

    Two-Step Testing

    In high-risk populations, such as those living with HIV/AIDS or in areas with high TB prevalence,
    two-step testing is recommended. This involves first performing a Mantoux test and then confirming
    a positive result with an interferon-gamma release
    assay (IGRA) or a chest X-ray. Two-step testing improves
    the accuracy of diagnosis, especially in individuals
    who may have a false positive Mantoux reaction due to BCG vaccination.

    The Latest Interpretation for Mantoux Test Results

    Recent studies have clarified that the size and duration of the Mantoux rash are critical factors
    in interpretation. A larger, more persistent rash is more likely
    to indicate true exposure to TB bacteria, while a smaller or fleeting reaction may represent
    cross-reactivity or a false positive. Additionally, guidelines now recommend interpreting Mantoux results within 72 hours of injection for accuracy.

    Recent Developments

    Recent advancements in TB diagnostics include the development of new and more accurate tests, such as the Xpert MTB/RIF assay, which provides rapid results and can be used alongside Mantoux testing.
    Research is also focusing on improving the accuracy of the Mantoux test in individuals vaccinated
    with BCG and those with pre-existing immune conditions.

    Heaf Test

    The Heaf test is another skin-based diagnostic tool, similar to the Mantoux test, but it uses a different antigen (mumps or squalene) and is often used for anergy testing in individuals with impaired immune responses.
    It is named after Harald Héaf, a Norwegian physician who contributed significantly to the understanding
    of TB diagnostics.

    See Also

    — **Tuberculosis Diagnosis**
    — **BCG Vaccine**
    — **Interferon-Gamma Release Assay (IGRA)**
    — **Xpert MTB/RIF Test**

    References

    1. World Health Organization. (2010). Tuberculosis control: Guidelines for national programmes.

    2. American Thoracic Society. (2005). Diagnostic criteria
    for latent tuberculosis infection.
    3. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. (2020).
    Best practices for TB diagnosis in Europe.

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