На нефтяном рынке начала складываться драматическая для России ситуация

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А курс российской валюты может рухнуть из-за серьезного дефицита бюджета Поделиться

На доселе безмятежном нефтяном рынке заштормило: марка Brent неожиданно потеряла более 4%, подешевев до $71,9 за баррель. И, хотя затем котировки слегка выросли, эксперты увидели в случившемся грозное предвестие скорого мирового кризиса. Между тем рубль, который еще в недавнем прошлом в такой ситуации стабильно обваливался, на сей раз укрепился. Есть надежда, что курс российской валюты по-настоящему «отвязался от нефти» в новых для себя реалиях.

На нефтяном рынке начала складываться драматическая для России ситуация

Котировки упали по совокупности нескольких факторов — больших и малых. Во-первых, ФРС США повысила ключевую ставку на 0,25% в качестве меры борьбы с инфляцией; во-вторых, в конце апреля на грани краха оказался американский First Republic Bank (14-е место в стране по размеру активов), в-третьих, на этой неделе появились довольно слабые данные по индексу деловой активности в Китае.

Масла в огонь подлили слова главы Минфина США Джанет Йеллен, заявившей: потолок госдолга может быть достигнут уже в начале июня. В теории это означает риски дефолта крупнейшей экономики мира.

Одновременно рынок проигнорировал новость о том, что с 1 мая девять стран ОПЕК+ начали дополнительно сокращать добычу на 500 тысяч баррелей в сутки. Прежде о снижении производства в таких же объемах объявила Россия. Причина лежит на поверхности: ранее другие экспортеры, не входящие в ОПЕК+ (например, США и Норвегия), стали, напротив, наращивать производство, внося определенную сумятицу в общую ценовую и товарную конъюнктуру. Похоже, с глобальной экономикой происходит нечто невразумительное и полномасштабный кризис уже не за горами. Тревоги по этому поводу усиливаются, спрос на нефть падает, соответственно, энергоресурсы дешевеют.

«В ближайшее время мы станем свидетелями нешуточной ценовой карусели на сырьевом рынке, — говорит эксперт Финансового университета при Правительстве РФ Игорь Юшков. — Опасения в связи с нарастающей рецессией будут толкать цены вниз, но этому будут противодействовать страны ОПЕК+, реагируя на каждое событие, последовательно сокращая добычу. Что касается отечественной марки Urals, ей тоже не избежать удешевления, как и котировкам торгуемых на бирже сортов Brent и WTI».

ЧИТАТЬ ТАКЖЕ:  Нефтяное харакири: альянс ОПЕК+ поспешил с ростом добычи «черного золота»

Для России ситуация драматична тем, что нам ко всему прочему приходится предоставлять покупателям довольно большую скидку. Если цена Brent упадет до $70, то Urals окажется в коридоре $45-50 за баррель. Для федерального бюджета это крайне нежелательно, поскольку наша казна сверстана из расчета в $70 за «бочку». Все зависит от того, как долго продлится период низких цен, резюмирует Юшков.

Впрочем, у нашей страны есть вариант пережить нелегкие времена. «Китай, снизил объемы закупок нефти западных марок и нарастил импорт российского сырья, — поясняет руководитель аналитического департамента Amarkets Артем Деев. — Хотя Пекин покупает российскую нефть с дисконтом к Brent, однако скидки в апреле сократились до минимума. Значит, Urals теряет в цене меньше, чем Brent и WTI. Отчасти это поддержит рубль.

Тем не менее, положение российской валюты продолжает оставаться довольно шатким. Главным фактором, который сегодня давит на курс «деревянного», является дефицит бюджета, а котировки нефти не играют особой роли. Правительству необходимо решить проблему падения экспортных доходов, и самый очевидный способ — постепенная девальвация национальной валюты собственными силами».

На взгляд Деева, прямо сейчас ОПЕК+ не будет дополнительно корректировать добычу в сторону понижения. Это делать нецелесообразно: пока Китай не восстановит прежние объемы потребления углеводородов, мера не даст должный эффект.

Если говорить о взаимосвязи между курсом рубля и ценах на нефть, то она сегодня минимальна, считает финансовый аналитик Сергей Дроздов. Дело в том, что на российских рынках — валютном, долговом и фондовом — уже нет иностранных игроков, чья доля в прежние времена превышала 50%. Среди них были и крупные американские фонды, которые действовали в основном по спекулятивными схемам: покупали валюту на позитивной (в том числе сырьевой) конъюнктуре, продавали — на малейшем негативе. Из-за этого рынки лихорадило, рубль слабел. Теперь, когда западные игроки отлучены от отечественной финансовой системы, возможности ронять российскую валюту у них практически не осталось.

3 КОММЕНТАРИИ

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