Банк России поднял ключевую ставку на 1%: кредиты подорожают

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Как решение ЦБ повлияет на рост цен, курс рубля и проценты по кредитам Поделиться

На заседании совета директоров ЦБ РФ было принято решение поднять ключевую ставку сразу на 1% — до 8,5%. Последний раз такая ставка была в октябре 2017 года, когда Россия выходила из кризиса 2014-15 годов. Фактически кредитный рынок страны вернулся на пять лет назад. Но регулятор действует согласно своей стратегии, целью которой является снижение инфляции.

Впрочем, ключевая ставка последовательно повышается с марта текущего года, однако пока остановить взлет цен в стране не удалось. Как отразится это решение ЦБ на динамике цен, курсе рубля, процентах по кредитам и депозитам, «МК» рассказали эксперты.

Банк России поднял ключевую ставку на 1%: кредиты подорожают

По итогам ноября инфляция составила 8,4%, то есть более чем в два раза превысила целевой для ЦБ РФ показатель (таргет) в 4%. В Банке России пытаются обуздать инфляцию путем подъема ключевой ставки еще в марте этого года, тогда она составляла 4,25%, после этого было еще шесть повышений и вот на седьмой раз, в декабре, ставка увеличена до 8,5%.

Сегодняшнее решение регулятора не является неожиданным для рынка, так как ЦБ РФ и в ходе предыдущих заседаний давал понять, что продолжит ужесточение политики, если ситуация с инфляцией будет ухудшаться. Речь об этом шла и на выступлении главы Банка России Эльвиры Набиуллиной в Госдуме в ноябре. Интересно, что в тот момент депутаты указали на сохраняющиеся противоречия между действиями ЦБ и кабинета министров. А ряд депутатов и вовсе высказали мнение, что нельзя победить инфляцию, только повышая ключевую ставку. Поможет ли затормозить рост цен сегодняшнее решение Банка России?

«У ЦБ пока нет возможности остановить цикл повышения ставки, так как инфляция продолжает ускоряться, — говорит Наталия Орлова, руководитель Центра макроэкономического анализа «Альфа-Банка». — По итогам этого года уровень инфляции может составить 8-8,5%». Опыт прошлый заседаний ЦБ РФ показывает, что регулятор старается поддерживать уровень ключевой ставки на значениях немного выше уровня инфляции, отмечает эксперт.

Центральный Банк России следует классической схеме борьбы с инфляцией: если она растет, нужно повышать ставки, поясняет Артем Деев, руководитель аналитического департамента AMarkets. Но эта политика имеет свои минусы: удорожание кредитов сокращает спрос и потребление, ведет к замедлению экономической активности (чем дешевле кредиты, тем больше граждане их берут и тратят, а экономика развивается). «Но однозначных решений проблемы инфляции в мировой экономике нет — приходится всегда балансировать между ростом инфляции и перспективами стагнации экономики страны. Потому действия ЦБ очень осторожны, регулятор действует по принципу «не навреди»», — считает аналитик.

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Артем Арзамасцев, директор компании «Единый Брокер», со своей стороны считает, что минусы от столь резкого роста ключевой ставки очевидны: удорожание кредитов и рост стоимости внутренних займов (повышенная доходность ОФЗ) уже проявляются. «Проблемы от роста ключевой ставки не обойдут стороной и население. Уже сейчас мы наблюдаем рост ставок как по ипотеке, так и по потребительским кредитам. Да, ставки по депозитам тоже растут, и это можно было бы записать в плюс. Но и тут не все так просто: повышенная доходность депозитов и инструментов долгового рынка может снизить инвестиционную активность граждан, которая била рекорды в период низких процентных ставок», — обращает внимание эксперт. 

Кроме того, решение Совета директоров ЦБ может сыграть в пользу национальной валюты, считают эксперты. Повышение ставки обычно поддерживает курс рубля на короткое время, и это наверняка произойдет до конца декабря, уверен Артем Деев. Он ожидает, что доллар и евро подешевеют примерно на 0,5-0,7 рубля до конца года.

Если растет ключевая ставка ЦБ РФ, то и в банках растут проценты по кредитам, продолжает аналитик. Значит, вырастет стоимость потребительских, ипотечных и автомобильных кредитов — в пределах 0,5% в среднем по стране. Но одновременно увеличатся ставки по депозитам — станет более выгодно размещать свои средства в банках под проценты. Сейчас ставки либо равны инфляции, либо превышают ее на 0,5-1,0% (т.е. находятся в среднем на уровне 8,5-9%).

«Монетарная политика развитых стран станет одним из ключевых факторов влияния на курс российской валюты в 2022 году, — поясняет Роман Чечушков, руководитель направления инвестиционной аналитики банка «Ренессанс Кредит». — В отличие от российского регулятора, ФРС США не торопится начинать цикл ужесточения денежно-кредитной политики. На последнем заседании в ноябре Федрезерв сохранил процентную ставку на уровне 0–0,25% годовых, но объявил о начале сворачивания программы количественного смягчения». Разница процентных ставок ФРС, ЕЦБ и Банка России в национальной валюте способствует укреплению рубля по отношению к доллару и евро, уверен эксперт.

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