Эксперт Юшков: «Интрига вокруг газового транзита через Украину будет сохраняться до последнего дня» Поделиться
Судьба транзита российского газа в Европу через Украину остается под большим вопросом. По мере приближения к дате 31 декабря, когда истекает срок действия текущего договора на прокачку, ситуация становится все более странной, противоречивой и непредсказуемой. Непосредственно причастные к транзиту стороны ведут себя настолько по-разному, что это создает почву для реализации абсолютно любых сценариев.

В частности, ключевые газовые компании из стран Центральной Европы подписали декларацию в поддержку продолжения транзита через Украину в 2025 году, сообщает Bloomberg. Документ адресован президенту Европейской комиссии (ЕК) Урсуле фон дер Ляйен. В нем сказано, что остановка поставок нанесет региону «значительный экономический ущерб в ближайшем будущем», серьезно пострадает и украинская газовая инфраструктура. Между тем, как пишет Bloomberg со ссылкой на источники в Брюсселе, сама ЕК не заинтересована в сохранении транзита.
Ранее, еще в октябре, официальный Киев устами премьер-министра Дениса Шмыгаля четко дал понять, что не собирается продлевать договор с «Газпромом» после 2024 года. А 12 декабря украинский министр энергетики Герман Галущенко заявил: «Наша позиция полностью открыта: мы готовимся к нулевому транзиту с 1 января».
-И все же интрига будет сохраняться до последнего дня, — рассуждает эксперт Финансового университета при правительстве РФ Игорь Юшков. – Транзит может как прерваться, так и возобновиться впоследствии. Сейчас фактически идет торг между Украиной и Европой, а риторику премьера Шмыгаля иначе как шантажом не назовешь. Он прямо говорит: «Если Еврокомиссия официально обратится к Украине относительно транзита любого газа, кроме российского, мы готовы это обсуждать и реализовывать соответствующие договорённости на основе принципов энергетической безопасности».
-Что означают слова «кроме российского»?
-Это важнейший момент. Шмыгаль имеет в виду не происхождение газа, речь идет о праве собственности. Киев хочет добиться от европейских компаний, чтобы те подписали с «Газпромом» дополнительное соглашение, согласно которому право собственности на газ переходило бы покупателям не в Австрии (как это практиковалось еще с советских времен), а на украинско-российской границе. Ведь тогда получится, что на территорию Украины будет заходить европейское сырье. Это позволит Киеву спокойно обсуждать дальнейшую судьбу транзита. Не зря же Шмыгаль использует вполне конкретные формулировки типа «мы не будем продлевать контракт именно с «Газпромом, договариваться с Россией». Соответственно, Москва может подписать допсоглашение с европейскими компаниями хоть 31 декабря о переносе точки сдачи-приемки, а Киев в тот же день – объявить о проведении аукционов на транзит газа. В этом случае европейцы как собственники придут на аукцион и возьмут себе столько объемов, сколько им нужно.
-Выходит, сейчас Украина стремится максимально повышать ставки в этой игре, своей «непримиримой» риторикой добиваясь от европейцев скорейшего подписания допсоглашения с «Газпромом»?
-В Европе тоже понимают подоплеку действий Киева. С одной стороны, это соглашение позволит ему добиться благоприятного для себя медийного эффекта и сохранить лицо. Мол, мы обещали не продлевать транзитный договор с враждебной Россией и сделали это. Зато договорились с дружественным Евросоюзом. На самом деле Украине крайне важно сохранить транзит: во-первых, она получает за него деньги, во-вторых, к нему привязана система внутреннего газоснабжения, что позволяет отбирать газ из трубы во время отопительного сезона и снабжать свои регионы. Кстати, подобный маневр Киев уже опробовал в отношении российской нефти, введя санкции против поставщика в РФ, которому в итоге пришлось заключить допсоглашение с венгерской нефтегазовой компанией MOL. Точка сдачи-приемки нефти была перенесена на белорусско-украинскую границу, где нефтепровод «Дружба» заходит теперь на территорию Украины, причем формально с венгерской, а не с российской нефтью.
-Существует ли в Евросоюзе солидарная позиция в отношении транзита?
-Руководители наднациональных органов ЕС, в лице Урсулы фон дер Ляйен или еврокомиссара по энергетике Дэна Йоргенсена убеждены, что альянс прекрасно обойдется без российского газа. А вот на уровне национальных правительств – в той же самой Австрии или Словакии – мыслят иначе. Там хорошо осознают все риски: дефицит газа взвинтит цены, ударит по экономикам, а расхлебывать придется им, а вовсе не Брюсселю. В разгар отопительного сезона стоимость газа на континенте может уйти выше тысячи долларов за тысячу кубометров. А что касается гипотетических сценариев с азербайджанским или казахстанским газом, я бы их вообще не рассматривал. Речь идет о том, чтобы какая-нибудь компания, например, азербайджанская SOCAR, приняла участие в аукционе от лица «Газпрома» и купила у Украины транзитные объемы. Но, судя по заявлению Шмыгаля, такая схема не устраивает Киев. Ведь тогда по территории Украины пойдет собственность России.

















































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