Эксперт рассказала, почему хранение денег в валюте Арабских Эмиратов станет выгодной заменой традиционным вариантам Поделиться
Власти нашей страны вот уже полгода открыто называют доллар и евро «токсичными валютами» и призывают отказаться от сбережений в них население и компании. Сильные мира сего утверждают, что Россия может обойтись не только без денежных единиц США и ЕС, но и без всех валют недружественных стран, а их в списке уже больше 50. Замминистра финансов РФ Алексей Моисеев в сентябрьском интервью РБК заявил, что в качестве альтернативы «токсичным» валютам следует обратить внимание на юань и дирхам Арабских Эмиратов. К первому из перечисленных вариантов следует относиться осторожно, поскольку курс китайской валюты напрямую контролируется правительством КНР и может быть в любой момент снижен. А вот вторая альтернатива намного интереснее. Почему в условиях дедолларизации российской экономики россиянам следует обратить внимание на дирхам, «МК» рассказала специалист по макроэкономическому анализу долговой устойчивости и валютному рынку, главный аналитик «Совкомбанка» Наталья Ващелюк.
По мнению эксперта, темпы дедолларизации российской экономики и банковской системы только ускоряются, банки всячески стимулируют клиентов избавляться от счетов и вкладов в долларах и евро, при этом возможности эту валюту потратить также стремительно исчезают. Но если сберегать и тратить в долларах и евро скоро станет невозможно, то какие могут быть альтернативы этим привычным валютам?
Многие нефтедобывающие страны Ближнего Востока следуют режиму фиксированного валютного курса. Не являются исключением и Объединенные Арабские Эмираты. Национальная валюта ОАЭ – дирхам – считается одной из наиболее устойчивых валют в мире. Дирхам был введен в 1973 году, с 1978 года его курс был фиксирован по отношению к специальным правам заимствования МВФ, а с 1997 года курс национальной валюты ОАЭ привязан к курсу американского доллара на уровне, который поддерживается до сих пор: 1 доллар равняется 3,67 дирхама ОАЭ.
«Эмиратский дирхам можно считать квази-долларом, но только в том смысле, что его курс длительное время не менялся по отношению к американской валюте», – говорит Ващелюк. В международных расчетах и валютных торгах дирхам ОАЭ используется в значительно меньшей степени, чем доллар. Дирхам не является резервной валютой. На глобальном уровне его использование несопоставимо с долларом, подчеркнула банкир.
Тем не менее для инвесторов важно, что их вложения в дирхамы не обесценивались даже в условиях снижения цен на нефть. Привязка курса к «твердой» валюте – доллару – нивелировала страновые валютные риски.
Для инвестиций в дирхамы важно понимать, не откажутся ли власти ОАЭ от действующего режима валютного курса и смогут ли они и дальше поддерживать фиксированный курс дирхама к доллару на текущем уровне, не допуская его девальвации.
Стабильность дирхама зависит от состояния экономики ОАЭ. Риски его ухудшения пока представляются незначительными. ОАЭ входит в топ-10 стран мира по величине запасов нефти и по уровню ее добычи. Доходы от продажи нефти позволили стране сформировать суверенные фонды, сумма средств в которых превышает $1,5 трлн. Так, суверенный фонд столичного эмирата Абу-Даби находится на третьем месте в мире по объему средств, отметила эксперт.
ОАЭ также достигли прогресса в диверсификации экономики, что ослабляет зависимость от волатильных нефтяных котировок. Дубай, крупнейший город ОАЭ – это региональный торговый, туристический, финансовый и транспортный центр. «В стране развиты строительный сектор, туризм, торговля, некоторые обрабатывающие производства, – указывает эксперт. – Правительство реализует меры по привлечению иностранных инвестиций и квалифицированной рабочей силы».
Рейтинговые агентства высоко оценивают долговую устойчивость страны и присваивают ей рейтинг «АА». Власти ОАЭ вряд ли откажутся от фиксированного валютного курса, так как экономика страны характеризуется высокой открытостью и зависит от иностранных инвестиций. Фиксированный валютный курс повышает предсказуемость экономических условий для зарубежных инвесторов. «Вероятнее всего, страна сможет поддерживать курс на заявленном уровне к доллару даже при серьезных внешних шоках, благодаря значительным золотовалютным резервам», – уверена эксперт.
ОАЭ не входит в список недружественных стран России и продолжает развивать экономические связи с нашей страной. Российским инвесторам, которые рассчитывают на рост курса доллара и стремятся снизить присутствие валют недружественных стран в портфеле, есть смысл обратить внимание на эмиратский дирхам, как одну из альтернатив американской валюте, указала банкир.
Справка «МК»
Наталья Ващелюк с отличием окончила бакалавриат и магистратуру экономического факультета МГУ и до прихода в «Совкомбанк» работала главным аналитиком в крупных коммерческих кредитно-финансовых организациях, старшим научным сотрудником, преподавателем макроэкономики в РАНХиГС. Она уже 10 лет занимается макроэкономическим анализом и прогнозированием, является автором двух книг. В сферу ее интересов сегодня входит макроэкономический анализ долговой устойчивости, инфляции, банковского сектора, рынка труд и денежно-кредитной политики, а также валютный рынок.
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Dianabol raises blood pressure like all anabolic
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