Названы факторы укрепления российской валюты: дорогая нефть, налоговый период, высокая ставка

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Аналитик Разуваев: «К концу года доллар вполне может достичь рубежа в 80 рублей» Поделиться

Решение Центробанка поднять ключевую ставку сразу с 13% до 15% стало шоком для большинства аналитиков, ожидавших увеличения показателя максимум до 14%. Этот ход регулятора сделает и без того дорогие потребкредиты еще недоступнее, а вот рубль на него отреагировал неоднозначно. Сначала американская и европейская валюты начали дешеветь, но к концу торгового дня пятницы постарались отыграть позиции и закончили биржевой день на уровне около 94 рублей за доллар и 99,6 рублей за евро. Что будет с рублем в начале ноября и как отразится на нем решение Банка России до конца года, «МК» рассказали эксперты.

Названы факторы укрепления российской валюты: дорогая нефть, налоговый период, высокая ставка

За минувшую неделю рубль укрепился почти на 3% к доллару и евро. Его усиление было вызвано тремя факторами. Во-первых, начался налоговый период, который всегда играет на руку отечественной валюте. Он закончится 30 октября, но до этого момента его влияние на курс рубля будет положительным. Во-вторых, отечественная валюта продолжает ощущать воздействие указа президента России об обязательной продаже валютной выручки компаниями-экспортерами. Третьим вдохновляющим на укрепление фактором для рубля стало увеличение ключевой ставки Банка России выше ожиданий рынка — сразу на 2%.

Позитивом в этой связи оказались наполнены и прогнозы экономических экспертов. Одни прогнозируют укрепление рубля к уровням в районе 90 рублей за доллар, другие — верят в готовность отечественной валюты отвоевывать позиции у доллара намного активнее. К примеру, по мнению финансового аналитика BitRiver Владислава Антонова, начавшееся некоторое время назад укрепление рубля получило значительную поддержку со стороны Банка России и на следующей неделе оно продолжится. Влияние налогового периода, напротив, прекратится, а вот воздействие указа президента РФ о продаже валютной выручки будет отражаться на курсе рубля ещё в течение полугода. После решения Центробанка резко увеличилась вероятность снижения доллара до 92-93 рублей, а евро — до 98-99 рублей уже в ближайшие дни, отметил эксперт.

В целом воздействие ключевой ставки на рубль стало более длительным и опосредованным из-за ухода нерезидентов, западных санкций и ограничений на движение капитала. Такого мнения придерживается главный аналитик «Совкомбанка» Михаил Васильев. По его словам, решение ЦБ РФ окажет умеренно позитивное влияние на рубль в ближайшие дни. «Повышение ключевой ставки приведет к удорожанию кредитов, что снизит потребительский и инвестиционный спрос, в том числе спрос на импорт, а также снизит спрос на валюту, — поясняет эксперт. — Кроме того, повышение ставок по депозитам и доходностей облигаций увеличит привлекательность рублевых сбережений и повысит спрос на рубли». Аналитик ожидает, что доллар к концу года будет торговаться в диапазоне 94-98 рублей, а евро окажется в коридоре 99-104 рубля.

ЧИТАТЬ ТАКЖЕ:  Набиуллина назвала основные факторы, влияющие на курс рубля

При этом наиболее радикально настроенные аналитики утверждают, что можно ожидать и более серьезного воздействия ключевой ставки на рубль. В частности, директор департамента корпоративных финансов ИК «ИВА Партнерс» Артем Тузов полагает, что повышение ставки до 15% стало суровым сигналом для рынка и всех финансовых и производственных корпораций. Для них настало время снижать инвестиции и сокращать кредитные линии. «Можно ждать падения ВВП, — предупредил аналитик. — Как следствие, снизится и спрос на импорт, что приведет к укреплению российской валюты, возможно, до 75-80 рублей за доллар к концу года».

В рассуждениях о возможности рубля укрепиться выше ожиданий наиболее оптимистично смотрящие на ситуацию финансисты не забывают и о ситуации на нефтяном рынке. Так, член наблюдательного совета Гильдии финансовых аналитиков и риск-менеджеров Александр Разуваев выразил уверенность, что до конца года доллар способен подешеветь до 85 рублей, но главное влияние на это окажет продажа выручки экспортеров и дорожающая нефть, хотя и ключевая ставка тоже сыграет свою роль. А к весне 2024 года доллар вполне может достичь рубежа в 80 рублей при сохранении прописанных указом президента ограничений и достаточном притоке валюты в страну, чему всегда способствует рост цен на нефть, отметил эксперт.

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    PedsElite

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