Эксперт оценил перспективу разблокировки активов России: «Вызовет тектонические сдвиги»

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В ЦБ заявили о наличии «переговорной позиции» для возвращения заблокированных резервов. Аргумент России о блокировке частных инвестиций в наши активы противостоит «заморозке» государственных резервов нашей страны на Западе. Это в определенной степени действительно сдерживающая позиция, но неравноценная по силе, считает аналитик TeleTrade Владимир Ковалев.

Эксперт оценил перспективу разблокировки активов России: "Вызовет тектонические сдвиги"

Банк России работает над возвращением замороженных резервов, заявила глава ЦБ РФ Эльвира Набиуллина.

«Мы продолжаем работу по тому, чтобы наши резервы в евро и долларах вернуть. В частности, указом президента введены ограничения на вывод средств из России нерезидентами из недружественных стран. Это ответная мера, она и формирует переговорную позицию по этому вопросу», — сказала она.

Считается, что под санкции подпало около $300 млрд российских резервов. Между тем, по данным аналитиков, Западу удалось найти лишь $80–100 млрд.

«Если бы позволили обстоятельства, европейские и американские институты, вероятно, конфисковали бы те авуары золотовалютных резервов РФ, которые смогли идентифицировать. Невзирая на риски соответствующих ответных действий со стороны России по отношению к деньгам частных инвесторов», – говорит Владимир Ковалев.

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По его словам, не делается это по двум основным соображениям. Первое – нет действительно правовых механизмов, такие прецеденты и юридические основания просто отсутствуют в законодательстве и практике. И второе – то, что конфискация, даже если подвести под нее какую-либо новую юридическую базу, нарушит сами принципы резервирования между странами, доверие к данному глобальному институту, надежность его в глазах всего мира.

«Это уже может вызвать тектонические сдвиги в самой основе международных финансовых отношений, – подчеркивает он. – Подорвет не только резервирование, очень важное для финансов многих стран, но и в принципе инвестирование, долговые рынки. Если есть определенные основания конфискации активов государств по инициативе заемщиков, то подрывается сама возможность таких вложений для инвесторов. Потери от этого будут гораздо больше даже для самих инициаторов, чем гипотетический выигрыш от отчуждения российских резервов».

Аналитик убежден, что в принципе возможность разблокировки данных активов после прекращения конфликта России и Украины сохраняется. Хотя, пока, конечно, речь об этом не идет.

ЭТО МОЖЕТ БЫТЬ ИНТЕРЕСНОЕЩЕ ОТ АВТОРА

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    References:

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