В России случилась овощная аномалия с ценами на картошку

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С начала года она катастрофически дорожает

Картофель и морковь за год подорожали в рознице более чем на треть. Об этом сообщил Росстат. Заметно прибавили в цене и другие овощи. Аграрии пеняют на ряд факторов: урожай сократился, логистические цепочки разорвались, производительность труда упала, издержки выросли. Торговые сети в свою очередь фактически открестились от причастности к подорожанию плодоовощной продукции. По словам ретейлеров, им это попросту невыгодно: если ценники переписать в большую сторону, поток покупателей сократится. Но не нужно быть отраслевым специалистом, чтобы понимать — никто не будет работать без прибыли или себе в убыток. Так кто же все-таки наживается на потребителях? В чем реальная причина роста цен и как изменится стоимость овощей в этом году, разбирался «МК».

В России случилась овощная аномалия с ценами на картошку

В России случилась настоящая овощная аномалия. По данным Росстата, средняя цена на 1 кг картофеля за первые пять недель этого года выросла на 40% в годовом выражении: 30,9 руб. против 22,2 руб. годом ранее. Стоимость моркови также выросла: прирост составляет 34%. Теперь за кило продукта россиянам придется отдать в среднем 37 рублей. Также наблюдалось подорожание томатов (+20%) и репчатого лука (+10%).

Производители объясняют подорожание увеличением издержек и снижением урожая. В Ассоциации компаний розничной торговли говорят следующее: «В случае если причины повышения цен объективны, торговые сети идут на повышение закупочных цен, одновременно максимально сдерживая изменения ценников на полках за счет собственных ресурсов и избегая резкой коррекции цен».

Минсельхоз считает, что тренд на подорожание плодоовощной продукции — явление сезонное, и с новым урожаем цены стабилизируются. Но только на сезонный фактор взлет цен явно не спишешь: ведь подорожание фиксируется к январю-февралю прошлого года. Опрошенные «МК» эксперты дают другое объяснение случившемуся.

Овощи в России и в мире дорожают по той же самой причине, по которой во второй половине 2020 года дорожали и другие товары, рассказывает эксперт информационно-аналитического центра компании Hamilton Антон Гринштейн. «Пандемия, жесткие карантинные меры и последовавшие за ними беспрецедентные финансовые вливания со стороны властей запустили волну инфляции издержек», — считает он. По словам эксперта, цены на сырье во второй половине 2020 года выросли на 20–40%, цены на оборудование и расходники подскочили из-за нарушений производственно-логистических цепочек вследствие локдаунов, а номинальный рост заработных плат стал следствием антикризисных мер правительств стран по поддержке граждан на фоне экономического спада.

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На общий тренд роста издержек производителей, в том числе и овощей, начали накладываться внутриотраслевые факторы. Урожай картофеля действительно был не очень хороший в прошлом году, поэтому цены на продукт объективно растут. В 2020-м общая посевная площадь картофеля по сравнению с 2019-м была на 8% меньше. Плюс пандемия внесла свои коррективы: из-за оттока мигрантов было мало рабочих рук, которые могли собрать даже небольшой урожай. Как следствие, издержки производителей выросли — цены увеличились.

«Картофель входит в список социально значимых продуктов питания. Если правительство будет регулировать всю отрасль по картофелю, как по пшенице, это только пойдет на пользу. Если будет принято решение о регулировании только конечной цены на полке, то это плохо. Это не даст возможности поднять отрасль на нужный уровень и произвести товар хорошего качества», — отметила член совета по финансово-промышленной и инвестиционной политике в Торгово-промышленной палате РФ Анна Вовк. По ее мнению, если до следующего года удастся удержать цены на уровне 2021-го, это будет победа. «Если говорить о перспективах этого года, то до нового урожая овощи еще подорожают на 15–20%», — прогнозирует эксперт.

Аналитик ИАЦ «Альпари» Анна Бодрова также считает, что цены на продукты питания продолжат расти. «Продавцы все свои издержки переложат на плечи покупателей — так бывает всегда в конце зимы. Плюс к этому работает сезонный фактор, когда нового предложения овощей еще нет, а запасы сокращаются. Как сильно ретейл поднимет цены, сказать невозможно, но вполне реально предположить, что стоимость картофеля, моркови, лука и других овощей может подрасти в ближайшее время на 10–15%», — полагает аналитик.

4 КОММЕНТАРИИ

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    Protein is doubtless one of the key vitamins for muscle progress,
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    High bar, the place the bar rests atop the traps, hits all the leg musculature pretty evenly.

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