Россияне накопили «плохие долги»: когда лопнет кредитный пузырь

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«Тенденция к увеличению просрочки будет продолжаться» Поделиться

Потребители погрязли в долгах. По итогам 2022 объем просроченных банковских кредитов вырос на 16%. Об этом сообщило коллекторское агентство «Долговой Консультант». Темпы роста задолженности действительно внушительные, так как годом ранее россияне брали кредиты большими объемами, но кредитная просрочка составляла только 9%. Почему люди перестали платить, и как скоро лопнет кредитный пузырь?

Россияне накопили «плохие долги»: когда лопнет кредитный пузырь

Кирилл Стус, специалист юридической компании «Интерцессия»:

«Причин падения платежеспособности граждан по кредитным обязательствам может быть множество. Конечно, экономическая ситуация и сокращение доходов, а также инфляционные риски являются самыми очевидными и первыми приходят на ум.

Граждане могут брать кредиты на самые различные цели, будь то открытие бизнеса, приобретение какого-либо имущества, простая покупка товаров первой необходимости. Как правило речь идет не о значительных суммах, все зависит от региона, финансового состояния заемщика и его потребностей, а также кредитной истории.

Да, закредитованность граждан остается на очень высоком уровне, и факт роста числа задолженностей не улучшает сложившуюся ситуацию. Подобная динамика является негативной. Насколько это может привести к появлению кредитного пузыря – в настоящий момент сложно сказать. Нужно прослеживать динамику в среднесрочной перспективе, смотреть на показатели, которые будут складываться в 2023 году, чтобы давать более серьезные прогнозы».

Артем Деев руководитель аналитического департамента AMarkets:

«Здесь дело в том, что на фоне выросшей инфляции (почти 12% по итогам года) люди брали кредиты и на крупные покупки, и на текущие нужды (для сведения «семейного бюджета»). Рост стоимости товаров привел к снижению реальных доходов граждан, а это стало причиной задержек по потребительским кредитам без обеспечения.

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Также значительно увеличились объемы выданных кредитов в микрофинансовых организациях, куда люди часто обращаются за небольшими суммами и в случае, если им отказывают банки. В российской банковской системе происходит постепенное ужесточение требований к заемщикам, как раз для того, чтобы не допускать роста «плохих долгов» (т.е. невозвратных сумм).

О пузыре речь пока не идет, масштабы для этого не настолько серьезные. Но количество граждан, признанных банкротами, в стране выросло в два раза в прошлом году. А это означает, что тенденция к увеличению просрочки будет продолжаться. Ведь пока нет очевидных причин для роста благосостояния граждан, когда они будут возвращать долги в банки более активно.

Однако есть и позитивный момент: далеко не все россияне погрязли в долгах. Статистика показывает, что часть заемщиков стала обращаться в банки с просьбой о досрочном погашении кредита. Люди воспринимают банковский заем как дополнительную нагрузку на семейный бюджет и стараются закрывать долги. В период экономической неопределенности это очень правильная позиция – лучше жить без долгов, рассчитывая на имеющиеся средства, и кредиты использовать только в самом крайнем случае».

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    References:

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