Курс в 98 за доллар стал для Центробанка сигналом к действию

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Регулятор наконец вмешался в ситуацию с рублем Поделиться

Решение ЦБ не закупать до конца года китайские юани на внутреннем рынке оценивается экспертами как обнадеживающий сигнал для рубля. Но вот вопрос: был ли сигнал услышан? В среду российская валюта вроде бы отреагировала на новость, слегка укрепившись на Мосбирже до 96,87 за доллар, однако на другой день курс вернулся к отметкам выше 97. И пока напрашивается только один вывод: для регулятора тренд на девальвацию рубля добрался до некой крайней черты, той «красной линии», когда надо принимать срочные меры.

Курс в 98 за доллар стал для Центробанка сигналом к действию

Фото: duma.gov.ru

Решение принято в целях снижения волатильности финансовых рынков, пояснили в ЦБ. Накануне курс доллара поднялся в ходе торгов выше 98 впервые с марта 2022 года. Напомним, в рамках бюджетного правила, последняя версия которого действует с начала 2023 года, была введена базовая величина нефтегазовых доходов (8 трлн рублей ежегодно), а все доходы свыше этой суммы должны идти в Фонд национального благосостояния через покупку юаней. Операции осуществляет Центробанк как агент Минфина. Собственно, так и происходило до начала августа, когда ведомство Силуанова объявило о переходе к закупкам валюты впервые с января 2023-го. Планировалось, что в период с 7 августа до 6 сентября на это будет потрачено 40,5 млрд рублей в целом, или 1,8 млрд рублей в день. И вдруг — такой поворот.

Согласно последним данным ЦБ, доходы сырьевых экспортеров (ключевой источник твердой валюты для страны) сократились в июле до $6,9 млрд с $16,8 млрд за тот же период прошлого года. Слабость рубля обусловлена и оттоком капитала: за год россияне перевели из отечественных банков в иностранные около $40 млрд, поскольку процентные ставки в рублях не дотягивали до уровня инфляции.

«Сегодня фактически повторяется история марта 2020 года, — говорит финансовый аналитик Сергей Дроздов. — Тогда на фоне обвального (ниже $19 за баррель) падения цены на российскую нефть марки Urals биржевой курс рубля ослаб более чем на 7%, до отметок 81–82. И Центробанк резко активизировал интервенции по продаже валюты на внутреннем рынке в рамках бюджетного правила. Определенный эффект это дало: рубль стал понемногу укрепляться. Что будет происходить сейчас, сказать сложно. Но похоже, что превышение в среду американской валютой отметки в 98 стало для регулятора сигналом к действию: видимо, в ЦБ не хотят видеть новостных заголовков о долларе по 100. Эту «линию Маннергейма», точнее Набиуллиной, было решено отстоять. Само по себе это явный позитив, поскольку на протяжении длительного времени со стороны ЦБ не было никакой реакции, откликов на события вокруг рубля, что многих раздражало».

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Что касается Минфина, ему совершенно незачем комментировать ситуацию с курсом, отмечает Дроздов: его позиция неизменно черно-белая, без полутонов и нюансов (в отличие от позиции Центробанка), это ведомство категорически не заинтересовано в крепком рубле.

«Причины ослабления рубля носят фундаментальный характер, проистекая из общего состояния экономики, — рассуждает кандидат экономических наук Михаил Беляев. — А в ЦБ по-прежнему убеждены, что валютный курс определяется сиюминутным соотношением спроса и предложения на рынке. То есть если сейчас прекратить закупки валюты, то тем самым удастся укрепить рубль. В реальности же попытки регулировать движение капитала сравнимы с примочками для тяжелобольного человека. Эффект они могут дать лишь слабый и непродолжительный. А если еще при этом повышать ключевую ставку, то можно окончательно распрощаться с надеждами на экономический, инвестиционный рост. Что в свою очередь будет работать на ослабление рубля».

Да, в России уменьшилось положительное сальдо торгового баланса, но ведь это — прямое следствие неразвитости экономики, ее неэффективности, несовершенства бизнес-среды. Если всем этим не заниматься систематически, резюмирует Беляев, проблемы с рублем никуда не исчезнут, сиюминутные административные усилия тут бесполезны.

Довольно жестко по поводу происходящего высказался уполномоченный по правам предпринимателей при Президенте РФ Борис Титов. По его словам, «текущая денежно-кредитная политика не дает шансов на появление развитого и разнообразного внутреннего производства и через пару лет». Перед профессионалами, работающими в ЦБ, никто не ставил подобных целей. Цель одна — инфляция в 4%, остальное не важно. «Но, видите ли, одними болеутоляющими болезни не лечатся. Нужны настоящие лекарства».

ЭТО МОЖЕТ БЫТЬ ИНТЕРЕСНОЕЩЕ ОТ АВТОРА

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    Both lessons of compounds indeed increase testosterone
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