Инфляция в России разогналась до 8,3%: какой она будет летом

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Аналитик Гойхман назвал самые подорожавшие товары и продукты Поделиться

Сколько бы денежные власти ни обещали с высоких трибун затормозить инфляцию, сколько бы не держал ЦБ ключевую ставку на сверхвысоком уровне, а цены продолжают жить в России своей жизнью, с каждым месяцем поднимаясь все выше и выше. Очередное доказательство тому предоставил Росстат, отчитавшись об инфляции в мае. Как оказалось, цены за последний месяц весны выросли в России выросли на 0,74% по сравнению с апрелем. А годовая инфляция подскочила с 7,84% в апреле до 8,3%.

Инфляция в России разогналась до 8,3%: какой она будет летом

Фото: ru.freepik.com

За пять месяцев 2024 года цены выросли на 3,22% — это выше, чем в прошлом году: за январь-май 2023-го было 2,38%.

Любопытно, что даже вечно настроенные скептически финансовые аналитики не ожидали такого разгула цен в мае: их консенсус-прогноз на месяц равнялся 0,53%, а на деле инфляция оказалась почти в полтора раза выше.

Продовольственные товары в мае подорожали на 0,41%. При этом плодоовощная продукция, к которой на нашем потребительском рынке – особое внимание, снизилась в цене за месяц на 0,83%. В целом майская ценовая картина по продовольствию оказалась крайне пестрой. С одной стороны, резко выросли цены на свеклу — на 21,8%, морковь — на 21,4%, лук — на 18,3%, капусту- на 11,0%, яблоки — на 6,6%. С другой, существенно снизились цены на огурцы — на 29,2% и помидоры — на 18,5%. С одной стороны, подорожали баранина — на 5,4%, шоколад – на 2,4%, масло оливковое – на 2,3%. С другой, подешевели «легендарные» куриные яйца — на 5%, и гречка — на 0,8%.

Из непродовольственных товаров значительный рост цен в мае был отмечен на отечественные легковые автомобили — на 3,6%. А вот автомобильный бензин и дизтопливо подорожали куда скромнее — на 0,5% и 0,4% соответственно.

Главным же майским драйвером роста стали услуги, которые выросли в цене в среднем на 1,53%. В частности, повышение стоимости отдыха на Черноморское побережье России составило 23,7%, в Турцию — 12,6%, в Закавказье — 8,7%. Речные круизы на территории России прибавили в цене 6,4%. Зато снизились цены на поездки в ОАЭ — на 12,7%, страны Юго-Восточной Азии — на 7,7%.

Активно росли в мае тарифы на услуги пассажирского транспорта: авиаперелет экономклассом подорожал на 15,1%, проезд в поездах дальнего прибавил от 8,2% до 10,4%, на метро — на 5,6%, в пригородном поезде — на 3,8%, трамвае — на 3,7%.

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Оценить майскую инфляцию и дать прогноз на дальнейшее изменение цен в России «МК» попросил аналитика Финансовой академии Capital Skills Марка Гойхмана,

— В мае потребительская инфляция в России опять увеличилась — до 8,3%, по сравнению с 7,8% в апреле. Почему так происходит?

— К сожалению, тенденция к ускорению роста цен продолжается с апреля 2023 года. Сейчас сравниваются цены с периодом прошлого года, когда инфляция снижалась до минимумов. В мае 2023-го она составляла 2,5%. Поэтому теперь цены соотносятся с тем, предыдущим уровнем. И по принципу «нет добра без худа» или «чем лучше, тем хуже», эффект низкой статистической базы увеличивает процент повышения цен.

Но, конечно, не столько с этим связано усиление инфляции. Свою роль играет повышение потребительского спроса, инфляционных ожиданий населения на будущее до 11,7% с 11% , ослабление рубля в предыдущие месяцы.

— Людей особенно волнуют цены на еду. И тут майская статистика противоречивая – есть и сильно подорожавшие и заметно подешевевшие продукты…

— Более показательной является динамика цен за год. Так вот, продукты питания подорожали за год на 9,7%, то есть больше, чем в среднем по потребительскому набору. Годовые лидеры роста цен среди продовольствия – куриные яйца (49%), куры (21,4%), плодоовощная продукция (14%), масло сливочное (10,7%). А вот, например, макаронные изделия даже подешевели на 1%.

Более умеренное движение – в секторе непродовольственных товаров (+7,1%). Здесь самое заметное увеличение за год – на медикаменты ( 12,6%), стройматериалы (9,1%), бензин (8%).

— Есть ли надежда на то, что летом рост цен замедлится?

— Пока в начале июня нарастание инфляции сохраняется. С 4 по 10 июня среднесуточный прирост цен составил 0,019%, тогда как год назад он был 0,012%, по данным Росстата. Тем не менее, считаю, что перспективы замедления инфляции в ближайшие месяцы есть. 

— За счет чего?

— К осени пройдёт эффект низкой базы, сравниваться будут уже месяцы с достаточно высокой инфляцией. Проявится и укрепление рубля с мая, с некоторым лагом во времени. Возможно и дальнейшее повышение ключевой ставки ЦБ РФ в июле, что препятствует росту цен. Кроме того, сельхозпродукция нового урожая, в частности, фрукты и овощи, сезонно станет дешевле.

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