Эксперты объяснили, почему регулятор не послушался советов МВФ и не стал играть на понижение
Первое в этом году заседание совета директоров ЦБ, посвященное ключевой ставке, не стало сенсацией: регулятор сохранил главный показатель на прежнем уровне -4,25%. И это при том, что инфляция в России разогналась до невиданной вот уже два года скорости — 5,2%. Казалось бы, это требовало нового подъема ключевой ставки, но ЦБ не стал менять свою денежно-кредитную политику. Равно как не пошел он на поводу у Международного валютного фонда, аналитики которого настоятельно советовали Банку России ставку опустить – с тем, чтобы стимулировать рост застрявшей в коронавирусной стагнации экономики. Как нынешнее решение ЦБ повлияет на рост цен, курс рубля проценты по банковским вкладам и кредитам, «МК» рассказали финансовые эксперты.
Андрей РАЗУВАЕВ, руководитель ИАЦ «Альпари»:
«Мы так и ожидали, что вопреки рекомендациям МВФ Банк России оставит ключевую ставку без изменений, то есть она по-прежнему будет составлять 4,25%. Решение оставить ставку неизменной никак не скажется на курсе рубля, оно ожидаемо. Процентные ставки по вкладам и ипотеке также не изменятся. Мало того, мы полагаем, что ставка будет неизменной в течение всего года. Дело в том, что возможное снижение ставки по рецепту МВФ ускорит бегство вкладчиков коммерческих банков на фондовый рынок, в России уже около 10 млн. брокерских счетов. Это очень существенный риск. Новые санкции США и Евросоюза могут вызвать биржевую панику и обнулить сбережения россиян. Снижение ставки ускорит долларизацию экономики и отток капитала, еще больше усугубит дефицит инвестиций. Поэтому, думаю, что снижение ставки — это плохая идея, и логично что ЦБ на такой шаг не пошел. Цель ЦБ РФ по инфляции составляет 4%, при нынешнем уровне инфляции логично видеть ключевую ставку в коридоре 6-7%. Видимо, данный показатель будет долгосрочным ориентиром для Банка России. Ожидаем, что в конце 2021 года или в начале 2022 года начнется повышение ключевой ставки».
Михаил ДОРОФЕЕВ, председатель правления КПК «Обновление»:
«Решение Банка России сохранить ключевую ставку соответствует рыночным ожиданиям и приведет к нейтральной реакции валютных спекулянтов, которые в большей степени поглощены ситуацией на нефтяном рынке, а также дебатами в США, касающимися расширения санкций в отношении России. Игроки рынка в ближайшие месяцы ожидают ужесточения монетарной политики ЦБ и постепенного ослабления инфляционного давления. Растут вклады зарубежных инвесторов — хотя доля нерезидентов, вложившихся в облигации федерального займа (ОФЗ) за прошлый год снизилась почти на 9%, номинальный объем казначейских бумаг, которые скупили иностранцы, за то же время вырос на 11%.
Впрочем, несмотря на то, что решение регулятора способно ограничить снижение инфляционных ожиданий, на саму динамику роста цен такие меры не повлияют. Снижение ставки, на котором настаивает Международный валютный фонд (МВФ), ударит по позициям рубля на внутреннем рынке и может подтолкнуть курсы доллара и евро к новым максимумам в этом году. Ослабление рубля и рост инфляционных ожиданий усложнят задачу ЦБ по возврату инфляции к целевому значению в 4% к концу года. А смягчение Банком России ключевой ставки в нынешних условиях не обязательно приведет к снижению процентных ставок по вкладам даже в условиях улучшения ситуации с рублевой ликвидностью. В таких условиях сохранение статус-кво по ставке выглядит логичным шагом со стороны ЦБ».
Сергей СУВЕРОВ, инвестиционный стратег УК «АриКапитал»:
«Снижать ставку Банк России не будет еще несколько месяцев. В настоящее время инфляция существенно превысила прогнозы правительственных ведомств, поэтому даже несмотря на советы МВФ, смягчать монетарную регулятор не решится. Руководство ЦБ не раз заявляло, что выступает против отрицательных процентов по депозитам, но сейчас ставки по вкладам уже находятся на этой отметке — россияне могут начислять средства на свои счета, но там деньги будут только храниться, а не приумножаться.
Но если бы ЦБ пошел на увеличение ключевой ставки, то выросли бы проценты по кредитам, и в первую очередь подорожали ипотечные займы. Плюс это привело бы к дополнительной раскрутке инфляции и поставило еще одну преграду для получения кредитов. Впрочем, обычным потребителям, многие из которых живут от получки до получки, далеко не всегда важны проценты по кредитам. Несмотря на не высокую финансовую грамотность, россияне постепенно приходят к выводу, что в первую очередь необходимо повышать собственные реальные доходы, за счет которых можно не только гасить прошлые долги, но и задуматься о новых заимствованиях. В этом смысле решение ЦБ оставить ставку без изменений – нейтрально: оно и не улучшает, и не ухудшает положение обычных вкладчиков».
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Arnold is presumably demonstrating the everlasting effects of steroids throughout old age
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In comparison, total testosterone by itself has no impact on physique composition; nevertheless, each of those readings will rise considerably when taking Dianabol.
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