«Многие уже вступили в фазу рецессии» Поделиться
Главный экономист МВФ Пьер-Оливье Гуринш ранее выступил с заявлением о том, что зима 2023 года имеет все шансы стать для Европы хуже зимы 2022 года, поскольку в нынешнем году зимний период будет особенно тяжелым из-за энергетического кризиса. Генеральный директор аналитического агентства «БизнесДром» Павел Самиев, в свою очередь, считает, что все страны Европы скоро войдут в рецессию, а на выход из нее у них уйдут годы.
Фото: pixabay.com
По словам эксперта, есть несколько критериев, которые свидетельствует о входе экономики в рецессию. Как заметил Самиев, на протяжении двух отчетных периодов, как правило, двух кварталов экономика должна показывать отрицательную динамику по ВВП. При этом аналитик уточнил, что есть ряд оговорок, например, экономику США не относят к рецессии, хотя она находится в минусе уже долгое время.
Эксперт подчеркнул, что многие западные экономики уже вступили в фазу рецессии, и их станет еще больше по итогам третьего квартала. По итогам четвертого, по мнению Самиева, в рецессию войдут все страны Европы. Аналитик пояснил, что из-за общего кризиса и рекордного роста цен на энергоносители Европу ждет глобальная деиндустриализация и рост безработицы. Именно эти два фактора, по словам специалиста, будут продолжать «раскручивать спираль рецессии».
Самиев полагает, что еще два-три года экономика в еврозоне будет оставаться отрицательной, то есть будут банкротиться и закрываться многие предприятия, безработица будет продолжать расти, усугубляя кризис. По мнению аналитика, рецессия не завершится, пока не будет найдена альтернатива российскому газу, который стал сейчас не только дорогим, но и недоступным, а поставки его можно заместить лишь частично.
При этом эксперт полагает, что США смогут вернуться к росту экономики через два-три квартала, но это зависит от поведения ЦБ, ведь на фоне борьбы с инфляцией он повышает ключевую ставку, что само по себе провоцирует рецессию. Самиев заключил, что с подобной дилеммой в настоящий момент сталкиваются все регуляторы.
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